What the One Big Beautiful Bill Could Mean for Investing
What We Are Watching for in July Tax bill update. As of this writing, both the House and the Senate have passed versions of President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB). The House will take up the Senate bill shortly and it is expected to be signed into law over the July 4 weekend Tariff […]
Tariffs, Earnings, and the Markets
Key Data Points to Watch in May Rest of Q1 2025 corporate earnings. The remaining 25% of S&P 500 companies that have not yet reported March quarter earnings will be reporting over the coming weeks. Earnings growth so far has been ahead of expectations, at 12% vs 7%. As clarity on tariffs and other administration […]
Tariffs: Reciprocal, Universal, and Sectoral
Our optimism for the economy and markets in 2025 has been tempered by the fairly large tariffs announced in April. The economy had, on balance, been solid prior to the tariff announcements, although a few signs of weakening had emerged. Some indicators, like credit spreads, equity market breadth, and the labor market were strong while […]
Immigration, DOGE, and the Impact on the Economy
We remain optimistic about the economic (and therefore market) outlook for 2025, although we are closely watching a variety of indicators for signs of weakness. Some indicators, like credit spreads, CEO confidence, small business optimism, equity market breadth, and the labor market remain quite strong. Others, including uncertainty around administration policies like tariffs and immigration […]