Navigating a K-shaped Economy
While economic growth since the pandemic has been relatively strong as measured by GDP, the US economy has, in fact, been more “K-shaped.”
What the One Big Beautiful Bill Could Mean for Investing
What We Are Watching for in July Tax bill update. As of this writing, both the House and the Senate have passed versions of President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB). The House will take up the Senate bill shortly and it is expected to be signed into law over the July 4 weekend Tariff […]
Deficits, Downgrades, and Interest Rates: Factors Shaping the Bond Market
What We Are Watching for in June Tariff updates. The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs that was announced in April is scheduled to expire in early July. Meanwhile, the US is negotiating with various countries while new tariff announcements have continued apace. Market action over the past two months reveals that when tariffs are expected […]
Tariffs, Earnings, and the Markets
Key Data Points to Watch in May Rest of Q1 2025 corporate earnings. The remaining 25% of S&P 500 companies that have not yet reported March quarter earnings will be reporting over the coming weeks. Earnings growth so far has been ahead of expectations, at 12% vs 7%. As clarity on tariffs and other administration […]
Tariffs: Reciprocal, Universal, and Sectoral
Our optimism for the economy and markets in 2025 has been tempered by the fairly large tariffs announced in April. The economy had, on balance, been solid prior to the tariff announcements, although a few signs of weakening had emerged. Some indicators, like credit spreads, equity market breadth, and the labor market were strong while […]
Immigration, DOGE, and the Impact on the Economy
We remain optimistic about the economic (and therefore market) outlook for 2025, although we are closely watching a variety of indicators for signs of weakness. Some indicators, like credit spreads, CEO confidence, small business optimism, equity market breadth, and the labor market remain quite strong. Others, including uncertainty around administration policies like tariffs and immigration […]
Economic Indicators Are High. Investment Valuations Are Higher.
By Ellen Hazen, CFA®, Chief Market Strategist What We Are Watching in January and in 2025: As we look to 2025, we see a continuation of many of the trends we observed in 2024. Economic indicators have generally remained strong, and we expect this to continue in 2025. Corporate profits are on track for another […]
The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same
By Ellen Hazen, CFA®, Chief Market Strategist November Takeaways: The US election early in the month resulted in a clear win. Investors had been jittery that a close election might be contested in the courts, increasing uncertainty. When the race was called early and decisively, markets rallied. The following day alone, the S&P 500 Index […]
Is Gold the New Gold?
By Ellen Hazen, CFA®, Chief Market Strategist October Takeaways: Economic surprises in October were uniformly positive. Starting with the shockingly strong September payrolls number (254,000 vs. expectations of 150,000), data consistently indicate a strong economy. The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%. Monthly retail sales growth was expected to be 0.1% month-over-month and was […]
The Benefits of Staying Calm Through Market Volatility
By Ellen Hazen, CFA®, Chief Market Strategist September Takeaways: Inflation continued to ease with the Consumer Price Index increasing at 2.5%, down from 2.9% in the prior month The Federal Reserve (“Fed”) reduced interest rates. Mid-month, the Fed reduced its overnight interest rate by 0.5%, the first cut in over four years. Currently the market […]