Immigration, DOGE, and the Impact on the Economy
We remain optimistic about the economic (and therefore market) outlook for 2025, although we are closely watching a variety of indicators for signs of weakness. Some indicators, like credit spreads, CEO confidence, small business optimism, equity market breadth, and the labor market remain quite strong. Others, including uncertainty around administration policies like tariffs and immigration […]
Market Weighs Executive Orders and DeepSeek Surprise Against Growing US Economy
In January, we saw the inauguration of a new administration, which has wasted no time in imprinting its agenda onto the government. We view some of the announced actions as positive for corporate profit growth (and therefore markets), while others are negative. At the same time, the $27 trillion US economy and the $63 trillion […]
Social Security Fairness Act Update
By Laurie Faille, CFP®, CDFA®, Principal, Private Client Advisor Workers with reduced or eliminated Social Security payments will regain their benefits with a new law that passed just days before congress adjourned. The Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 cleared its final hurdles passing the Senate on December 27, 2024, and was signed into law […]
Economic Indicators Are High. Investment Valuations Are Higher.
By Ellen Hazen, CFA®, Chief Market Strategist What We Are Watching in January and in 2025: As we look to 2025, we see a continuation of many of the trends we observed in 2024. Economic indicators have generally remained strong, and we expect this to continue in 2025. Corporate profits are on track for another […]
The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same
By Ellen Hazen, CFA®, Chief Market Strategist November Takeaways: The US election early in the month resulted in a clear win. Investors had been jittery that a close election might be contested in the courts, increasing uncertainty. When the race was called early and decisively, markets rallied. The following day alone, the S&P 500 Index […]
The Cost of Pet Ownership
By Jessie Butler, CFP®, Principal, Private Client Advisor In January 2023 my family said goodbye to our 16-year-old puggle, Jack. That was one of the most difficult days our family has ever experienced together; I miss him every single day. Recently, our kids have been hounding us for another dog, but I am reluctant. I […]
Is Gold the New Gold?
By Ellen Hazen, CFA®, Chief Market Strategist October Takeaways: Economic surprises in October were uniformly positive. Starting with the shockingly strong September payrolls number (254,000 vs. expectations of 150,000), data consistently indicate a strong economy. The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%. Monthly retail sales growth was expected to be 0.1% month-over-month and was […]
The Benefits of Staying Calm Through Market Volatility
By Ellen Hazen, CFA®, Chief Market Strategist September Takeaways: Inflation continued to ease with the Consumer Price Index increasing at 2.5%, down from 2.9% in the prior month The Federal Reserve (“Fed”) reduced interest rates. Mid-month, the Fed reduced its overnight interest rate by 0.5%, the first cut in over four years. Currently the market […]
Time IN the Market, Not Timing the Market
By Ellen Hazen, CFA®, Chief Market Strategist August Takeaways: Economic data was mixed. New jobs created in the month of July (reported in early August) were below expectations, at only 114,000, compared to expectations of 175,000. Moreover, revisions to the prior twelve months’ estimates were a combined negative 818,000, indicating that previously reported numbers were […]
Can Small Caps Catch Up?
By Ellen Hazen, CFA®, Chief Market Strategist July Takeaways: Small-capitalization US equities sharply outperformed. During the month of July, the S&P SmallCap 600 Index appreciated 10.8%, while the S&P 500 Index appreciated only 1.2%. Year-to-date, the larger company index is still well ahead of the small-cap index, at +16.7% vs +10.0%, but the 6.7 percentage […]