Tariffs, Earnings, and the Markets

Tariffs, Earnings, and the Markets

Key Data Points to Watch in May Rest of Q1 2025 corporate earnings. The remaining 25% of S&P 500 companies that have not yet reported March quarter earnings will be reporting over the coming weeks. Earnings growth so far has been ahead of expectations, at 12% vs...
Tariffs: Reciprocal, Universal, and Sectoral

Tariffs: Reciprocal, Universal, and Sectoral

Our optimism for the economy and markets in 2025 has been tempered by the fairly large tariffs announced in April. The economy had, on balance, been solid prior to the tariff announcements, although a few signs of weakening had emerged. Some indicators, like credit...
Immigration, DOGE, and the Impact on the Economy

Immigration, DOGE, and the Impact on the Economy

We remain optimistic about the economic (and therefore market) outlook for 2025, although we are closely watching a variety of indicators for signs of weakness. Some indicators, like credit spreads, CEO confidence, small business optimism, equity market breadth, and...
Social Security Fairness Act Update

Social Security Fairness Act Update

Workers with reduced or eliminated Social Security payments will regain their benefits with a new law that passed just days before congress adjourned.  The Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 cleared its final hurdles passing the Senate on December 27, 2024, and was...